New climate change data for the UK – what will it mean?

In late 2018, it was a wet and windy start to the winter in the UK and in Bristol this meant many resilience issues for the city. A particularly heavy storm in late November saw flooding of approximately 10 commercial units in a busy area of the city, caused by fallen leaves blocking highway drainage infrastructure, demonstrating the nature of resilience issues all cities face.

In wider news, the UK Climate Projections revisions have been released. These projections, known as ‘UKCP18’ build on the previous projections released in 2009 called UKCP09. They are a climate analysis tool and now the most up-to-date assessment of how a changing climate may affect the UK. The data is extensive as it uses a number of probabilistic climate and population projections to present a range of potential climate change scenarios.

This data will be crucial for practitioners like Bristol City Council and Wessex Water to help us assess the potential impacts of climate change in Bristol, but it will take us a while to analyse the data before using it to inform our policies. One thing is for sure, it certainly supports many people’s beliefs that climate change is going to be one of the biggest challenges for our societies as we move through the 21st century. In particular, sea level rise is set to remain a particular challenge and the reports indicate that even with a dramatic reduction in carbon emissions, our climate will continue to change at least until the 2300’s.

The UK team will be using the UKCP18 body of evidence to continue our RESCCUE journey. In time we will be able to update our flood simulation modelling to predict the likely impacts of a changing climate. However, in the short term, we will be making the most of the media attention surrounding the report’s release to engage with our city resilience partners, building on workshops held in the autumn.

The message from RESCCUE is clear; climate change will stretch city resources and functions meaning that current methods of city management may not be fit for purpose in the future. Our role is to make sure this message is communicated and understood by our partners so we can work together to assess the likely size and scale of climate impacts. Collaboration is the only way cities will have any chance of diffusing the ‘climate bomb’ heading our way.

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